{"id":12343,"date":"2025-03-19T23:39:45","date_gmt":"2025-03-19T15:39:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shehuifa.com\/?p=12343"},"modified":"2025-11-13T13:55:27","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T05:55:27","slug":"%e6%b8%b8%e5%ae%87%e3%80%81%e9%99%88%e8%b6%85%ef%bc%9a%e6%a1%88%e4%be%8b%e5%af%bc%e5%90%91%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%e7%9a%84%e6%af%94%e8%be%83%e6%8a%80%e8%89%ba%ef%bc%9a%e5%93%b2%e5%ad%a6%e5%9f%ba%e7%a1%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/abc.shehuifa.com\/?p=12343","title":{"rendered":"\u6e38\u5b87\u3001\u9648\u8d85\uff1a\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u6280\u827a\uff1a\u54f2\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u4e0e\u5206\u6790\u8def\u5f84"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"padding: 0px 20px;\">\n<div style=\"text-align: right;\">\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u6e38\u5b87\u3001\u9648\u8d85 \u00a0 \/ \u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u300a\u5f00\u653e\u65f6\u4ee3\u300b2023\u5e74\u7b2c5\u671f<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 25px;\">\n<div id=\"content\">\n<div id=\"content2\">\n<div class=\"article-content\">\n<p align=\"left\">\u3010\u5185\u5bb9\u63d0\u8981\u3011 \u672c\u6587\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u6307\u7684\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u8de8\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u6216\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u5206\u6790\u6316\u6398\u5145\u5206\u4e0e\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\uff08\u7ec4\u5408\uff09\u6216\u63a2\u7d22\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u4ee5\u7406\u8bba\u5efa\u6784\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e3a\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u3001\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u3002\u672c\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u5728\u6bd4\u8f83\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ee5\u53ca\u91cf\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u8d28\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4ea4\u950b\u4e2d\u9010\u6e10\u53d1\u5c55\u8d77\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u8981\u79d1\u5b66\u5730\u5c55\u5f00\u4e00\u9879\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9996\u5148\u8981\u7406\u89e3\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u8981\u9075\u5faa\u201c\u89c4\u5f8b\u6027-\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u201d\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\uff09\u6216\u201c\u673a\u5236\u6027-\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u201d\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u6cd5\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5176\u5173\u952e\u4ef7\u503c\u5728\u4e8e\u63ed\u793a\u4e8b\u7269\u4e4b\u95f4\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u56e0\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u5398\u6e05\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5c06\u4e0d\u96be\u5224\u522b\u9009\u62e9\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65f6\u673a\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5\u6b64\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u201c\u5229\u5668\u201d\uff0c\u8bb2\u597d\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u60c5\u5883\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6545\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u3010\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\u3011 \u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76,\u54f2\u5b66\u57fa\u7840,\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba,\u8de8\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76,\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u5206\u6790<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\"><strong>\u4e00\u3001\u5bfc\u8a00\uff1a\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76<\/strong><\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u6ca1\u6709\u5dee\u5f02\u4fbf\u65e0\u6cd5\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u7f3a\u5c11\u6bd4\u8f83\u5219\u96be\u4ee5\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u5bfb\u627e\u5dee\u5f02\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u63d0\u51fa\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u79d1\u5b66\u5730\u8fdb\u884c\u201c\u6bd4\u8f83\u201d\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u5f15\u53d1\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u8def\u5f84\u6216\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u5219\u6210\u4e3a\u8bf8\u591a\u7814\u7a76\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u5206\u91ce\u3002\u5728\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5dee\u5f02\u6216\u5206\u91ce\uff0c\u6700\u4e3a\u7a81\u51fa\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u4fbf\u662f\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u4e0e\u53d8\u91cf\u5bfc\u5411\u4e4b\u4e89\u3002\u2460<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u201c\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u201d\uff08case-oriented research\uff09\u7531\u67e5\u5c14\u65af\u00b7\u62c9\u91d1\uff08Charles C. Ragin\uff09\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e4b\u76f8\u5bf9\u7684\u5219\u662f\u201c\u53d8\u91cf\u5bfc\u5411\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u201d\uff08variable-oriented approach\uff09\u3002\u62c9\u91d1\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u91cf\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u53d8\u91cf\u5bfc\u5411\u8def\u5f84\uff1a\u5176\u56fa\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u91c7\u7528\u4e3b\u6d41\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u5de5\u5177\u800c\u62d3\u5c55\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u201c\u5e7f\u5ea6\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u6ee1\u8db3\u7edf\u8ba1\u6280\u672f\u7684\u9700\u8981\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u672c\u8eab\u4e0e\u9a71\u52a8\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u73b0\u5b9e\u4ee5\u53ca\u653f\u6cbb\u5173\u6000\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u77db\u76fe\u91cd\u91cd\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u5b9a\u91cf\u7684\u8de8\u56fd\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u5e26\u6709\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u56f0\u5883\u7684\u6709\u673a\u4f53\uff08organisms with systemic distress\uff09\uff0c\u6240\u68c0\u9a8c\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u5173\u8054\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u8c61\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u7279\u6027\u56e0\u800c\u4e5f\u96be\u4ee5\u5c55\u73b0\u5176\u4e2d\uff1b\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u90a3\u4e9b\u6df1\u5165\u5206\u6790\u5c11\u6570\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u624d\u80fd\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u8def\u5f84\uff08Ragin\uff0c 1987\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u5f80\u5f80\u5bf9\u60c5\u5883\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u5386\u53f2\u72ec\u7279\u6027\u5177\u6709\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u654f\u9510\u5ea6\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u62c9\u91d1\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7ed3\u5408\u5b9a\u91cf\u6280\u672f\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u4ee5\u96c6\u5408\u7406\u8bba\uff08set theory\uff09\u548c\u5e03\u5c14\u4ee3\u6570\uff08Boolean algebra\uff09\u4e3a\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5f15\u5165\u4e00\u79cd\u65e8\u5728\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u7b49\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5373\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\uff08qualitative comparative analysis\uff0c QCA\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u6cbf\u7740\u62c9\u91d1\uff08Ragin\uff0c 1987\uff0c 2008\uff09\u6240\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u601d\u8def\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u52a0\u91cc\u00b7\u91d1\uff08Gary King\uff09\u7b49\uff08King et al.\uff0c 1994\uff09\u5b8c\u5168\u4ee5\u91cf\u5316\u903b\u8f91\u6307\u5bfc\u793e\u79d1\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u4e89\u8bba\u4e0e\u53cd\u601d\uff0c\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5b66\u8005\u9010\u6e10\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u4e00\u79cd\u4ee5\u5e03\u5c14\u4ee3\u6570\u548c\u96c6\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u4ee5\u6316\u6398\u5145\u5206\uff0f\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\u7ec4\u5408\u4e3a\u76ee\u7684\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4f53\u7cfb\uff08Goertz and Mahoney\uff0c 2012\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u65e0\u7591\u4e30\u5bcc\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u5de5\u5177\u7bb1\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u590d\u5174\u4e86\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u7b49\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u8def\u5f84\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u672c\u6587\u5bf9\u201c\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u201d\u7684\u754c\u5b9a\u5219\u6bd4\u62c9\u91d1\u66f4\u4e3a\u5e7f\u6cdb\u3002\u672c\u6587\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u6307\u7684\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u8de8\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u6216\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u5206\u6790\u6316\u6398\u5145\u5206\u4e0e\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\uff08\u7ec4\u5408\uff09\u6216\u63a2\u7d22\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u4ee5\u7406\u8bba\u5efa\u6784\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e3a\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\uff08within-case analysis\uff09\u3001\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\uff08small-N comparative methods\uff09\u4e0e\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u672c\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e0e\u53d8\u91cf\u5bfc\u5411\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u5728\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e0a\u5177\u6709\u4e09\u5927\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5176\u5bf9\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u79c9\u6301\u6574\u4f53\u8bba\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u5373\u5c06\u6848\u4f8b\u89c6\u4e3a\u6574\u4f53\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7531\u82e5\u5e72\u5206\u79bb\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u6240\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u4f53\uff0c\u6216\u7531\u5404\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u6570\u503c\u6240\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\u4f53\uff08Marx et al.\uff0c 2014\uff09\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6574\u4f53\u7684\u5404\u90e8\u5206\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u5d4c\u5165\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u4e4b\u4e2d\u6765\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u6bd4\u8f83\u5404\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\u6216\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5171\u53d8\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0b\u6765\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u5176\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u662f\u7ec4\u6001\u6027\u7684\uff08configurational\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u8def\u5f84\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\uff08Rihoux and Ragin\uff0c 2009\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u8981\u6c42\u5c06\u6848\u4f8b\u90fd\u770b\u4f5c\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8de8\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5448\u73b0\u4e8c\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5373\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u82e5\u5e72\u6761\u4ef6\u6216\u6761\u4ef6\u7ec4\u5408\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u5f80\u5f80\u5f3a\u4e8e\u5398\u6e05\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u800c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7b49\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u5206\u6790\u5219\u64c5\u957f\u6253\u5f00\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u201c\u9ed1\u7bb1\u201d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5bf9\u57fa\u4e8e\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7684\u591a\u5143\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u8d8a\u53d1\u91cd\u89c6\uff08Beach and Rohlfing\uff0c 2018\uff1b Rohlfing and Schneider\uff0c 2018\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7279\u5f81\u4e5f\u4f7f\u5f97\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u975e\u5e38\u9002\u5408\u5206\u6790\u7531\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6765\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u64c5\u957f\u5904\u7406\u4e2d\u5c0f\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u548c\u590d\u6742\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u5c06\u4e3b\u8981\u4ece\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u5bf9\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u5c55\u5f00\u8ba8\u8bba\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u4ece\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u4e89\u8bba\u6765\u63a2\u8ba8\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8109\u7edc\uff0c\u4e8c\u662f\u8ba8\u8bba\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u4e09\u662f\u4ecb\u7ecd\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5206\u6790\u8def\u5f84\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\"><strong>\u4e8c\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e89\u950b\u4e0e\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u53d1\u5c55<\/strong><\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u601d\u7ef4\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u6bd4\u8f83\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08the comparative method\uff09\u3002\u6309\u7167\u963f\u4f26\u5fb7\u00b7\u5229\u666e\u54c8\u7279\uff08Arend Lijphart\uff09\u7684\u603b\u7ed3\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\uff08Lijphart\uff0c 1971\uff09\u3002\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u5728\u4e8e\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u4e0e\u91cd\u70b9\u6027\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\uff1a\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u6307\u7684\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u63d0\u70bc\u51fa\u53ef\u4ee5\u53cd\u6620\u7814\u7a76\u76ee\u6807\u3001\u6307\u5f15\u548c\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u6570\u636e\u6536\u96c6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6bd4\u8f83\u548c\u79ef\u7d2f\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\uff1b\u91cd\u70b9\u6bd4\u8f83\u6307\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u53ea\u8003\u5bdf\u6240\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\uff08George and Bennett\uff0c2005\uff1a215\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u4e0e\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u3001\u5b9e\u9a8c\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u4e5f\u5728\u4e8e\u5bf9\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u8fdb\u884c\u79d1\u5b66\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u53d8\u91cf\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u6216\u66f4\u591a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5229\u666e\u54c8\u7279\u4e5f\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u8005\u9762\u4e34\u201c\u53d8\u91cf\u591a\u3001\u6848\u4f8b\u5c11\u201d\u7684\u7a98\u5883\u65f6\uff0c\u5c06\u6bd4\u8f83\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u6700\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5de5\u5177\u4e4b\u4e00\uff08Lijphart\uff0c 1971\uff1a693\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u4ee5\u53ca\u76f8\u5173\u5b66\u79d1\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5c06\u6bd4\u8f83\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd0\u7528\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5e76\u672a\u5982\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u90a3\u6837\u5e7f\u6cdb\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u81ea20\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u5fae\u89c2\u8c03\u67e5\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u7684\u4e30\u5bcc\uff0c\u5404\u79cd\u590d\u6742\u7edf\u8ba1\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u8f6f\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0e\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b9e\u9a8c\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u4ece\u6570\u636e\u83b7\u53d6\u4fbf\u5229\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u6709\u6548\u6027\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4eec\u660e\u663e\u66f4\u52a0\u9752\u7750\u5927\u6837\u672c\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4ee5\u53ca\u5404\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u968f\u673a\u5e72\u9884\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff08Morton and Williams\uff0c2010\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u539f\u56e0\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u5bf9\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e0e\u77e5\u8bc6\u50a8\u5907\u8981\u6c42\u8f83\u9ad8\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9700\u8981\u5728\u201c\u6218\u7565\u201d\u5c42\u9762\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5408\u7406\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u66f4\u9700\u8981\u5728\u201c\u6218\u672f\u201d\u5c42\u9762\u89e3\u51b3\u82e5\u5e72\u68d8\u624b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5982\u4f55\u754c\u5b9a\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u8fdb\u884c\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u7b49\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\u8fdb\u884c\u6df1\u5165\u5256\u6790\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u4e5f\u8981\u6c42\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u638c\u63e1\u4e0e\u6848\u4f8b\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6587\u5316\u3001\u5386\u53f2\u751a\u81f3\u8bed\u8a00\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u76f8\u8f83\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u2014\u2014\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4ea4\u950b\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u2014\u2014\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6700\u4e3a\u91cd\u5927\u3002\u2461\u81ea\u6b64\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u591a\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u8d5e\u540c\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u8ffd\u968f\u52a0\u91cc\u00b7\u91d1\u3001\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u57fa\u6b27\u6c49\uff08Robert O. Keohan\uff09\u548c\u6089\u5c3c\u00b7\u7ef4\u5df4\uff08Sidney Verba\uff09\uff08King et al.\uff0c 1994\uff09\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u91cf\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5171\u901a\u6027\uff08\u6bd4\u5982Lieberman\uff0c 2005\uff1b Seawright\uff0c 2016\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5f71\u54cd\u65e0\u7591\u662f\u5de8\u5927\u7684\uff1a\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5b83\u5927\u5927\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8005\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u610f\u8bc6\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5b83\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee5\u91cf\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u903b\u8f91\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4f53\u7cfb\uff08Mahoney\uff0c 2010\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u8fd8\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u5219\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u5177\u6709\u81ea\u8eab\u7279\u6709\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u975e\u91cf\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u903b\u8f91\u53ef\u4ee5\u7edf\u5408\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u201c\u8fa9\u62a4\u6027\u201d\u7684\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u8def\u5f84\u672c\u8eab\u5177\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u53ef\u66ff\u4ee3\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff08Brady and Collier\uff0c 2010\uff1b Gerring\uff0c 2007\uff09\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u79cd\u5219\u5021\u5bfc\u201c\u53e6\u8f9f\u8e4a\u5f84\u201d\uff0c\u5373\u660e\u786e\u53cd\u5bf9\u52a0\u91cc\u00b7\u91d1\u7b49\u4eba\u7814\u7a76\uff08King et al.\uff0c 1994\uff09\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5e76\u6316\u6398\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u91cf\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6839\u672c\u533a\u522b\uff0c\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u9488\u5bf9\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\uff08Ragin\uff0c 2008\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u540e\u4e24\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5b66\u8005\u4eec\u4e5f\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u53cd\u601d\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5e94\u5f53\u5982\u4f55\u201c\u79d1\u5b66\u5730\u201d\u5c55\u5f00\u4e00\u9879\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\uff1f\u8981\u56de\u7b54\u597d\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u8981\u7406\u89e3\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u6574\u4f53\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5e76\u4e0d\u8ba4\u53ef\u7528\u91cf\u5316\u903b\u8f91\u6307\u5bfc\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4ef7\u503c\u5728\u4e8e\u63ed\u793a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u56e0\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u4e8c\u8005\u5bf9\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u672c\u8d28\u5dee\u5f02\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u5bf9\u52a0\u91cc\u00b7\u91d1\u7b49\u4eba\u7814\u7a76\uff08King et al.\uff0c 1994\uff09\u7684\u4e89\u8bba\u4e0e\u53cd\u601d\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9010\u6e10\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u4e00\u79cd\u4ee5\u5e03\u5c14\u4ee3\u6570\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u4ee5\u6316\u6398\u5145\u5206\uff0f\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\uff08\u6216\u6761\u4ef6\u7ec4\u5408\uff09\u4e3a\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e00\u4f53\u7cfb\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6307\u5bfc\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7684\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u4e0e\u53d8\u91cf\u5bfc\u5411\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u533a\u522b\u5f00\u6765\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u201c\u4e24\u79cd\u6587\u5316\u201d\uff08Goertz and Mahoney\uff0c 2012\uff09\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u7814\u7a76\u6587\u5316\u5728\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u5c42\u9762\u5b58\u5728\u5de8\u5927\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0a\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u201c\u9519\u914d\u201d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8bf8\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5e76\u672a\u5f15\u8d77\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u91cd\u89c6\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u5185\u65e2\u6709\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u7a0d\u52a0\u7559\u610f\uff0c\u4fbf\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u666e\u904d\u7684\u540a\u8be1\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a\u7814\u7a76\u8005\uff08\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u6216\u65e0\u610f\u8bc6\u5730\uff09\u660e\u660e\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u5173\u5145\u5206\u4e0e\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\uff08\u7ec4\u5408\uff09\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5374\u7528\u52a0\u91cc\u00b7\u91d1\u7b49\u4eba\u7814\u7a76\uff08King et al.\uff0c 1994\uff09\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u6216\u91cf\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff08\u9648\u8d85\u3001\u674e\u54cd\uff0c2019\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u5bf9\u6b64\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8981\u79d1\u5b66\u5730\u5c55\u5f00\u4e00\u9879\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9996\u5148\u8981\u7406\u89e3\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u552f\u6709\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u624d\u80fd\u7406\u89e3\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u4e00\u7814\u7a76\u8def\u5f84\u76f8\u8f83\u4e8e\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u72ec\u7279\u4f18\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\"><strong>\u4e09\u3001\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u57fa\u7840<\/strong><\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5728\u601d\u8003\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f88\u96be\u56de\u907f\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u5176\u4e00\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u8981\u8fd0\u7528\u4f55\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1b\u5176\u4e8c\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5e94\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u6765\u8fa9\u62a4\u5176\u5408\u7406\u6027\u3002\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u514b\u7f57\u8482\uff08Crotty\uff0c 1998\uff1a2-10\uff09\u7684\u603b\u7ed3\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5f80\u5f80\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u56db\u4e2a\u5c42\u5c42\u9012\u8fdb\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u6253\u7b97\u4f7f\u7528\u4ec0\u4e48\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u4f55\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5728\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fd0\u7528\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u7406\u8bba\u89c6\u89d2\u9690\u85cf\u5728\u6240\u8003\u91cf\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff1b\u7b2c\u56db\uff0c\u4f55\u79cd\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u5728\u6307\u5f15\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u89c6\u89d2\u3002\u8fd9\u56db\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u4e5f\u5206\u522b\u4ee3\u8868\u7740\u7814\u7a76\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u56db\u5927\u8981\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u3002\u524d\u8005\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u7528\u4e8e\u6536\u96c6\u4e0e\u5206\u6790\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6280\u672f\u6216\u7a0b\u5e8f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8981\u7d20\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u6700\u4e3a\u5e38\u89c1\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e5f\u662f\u201c\u767d\u7eb8\u9ed1\u5b57\u201d\u5730\u5448\u73b0\u5728\u201c\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u201d\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u540e\u8005\u5219\u6307\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3001\u7eb2\u8981\u3001\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6216\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002\u5176\u5f80\u5f80\u9690\u85cf\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u6c11\u65cf\u5fd7\uff08ethnography\uff09\u4fbf\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u5b66\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u901a\u8fc7\u5b9e\u5730\u8c03\u67e5\u4e0e\u53c2\u4e0e\u5f0f\u89c2\u5bdf\uff0c\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u6587\u5316\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0e\u7fa4\u4f53\u6240\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e0e\u89e3\u91ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e4b\u4e0a\u4fbf\u662f\u7406\u8bba\u89c6\u89d2\u6216\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\uff0c\u5373\u6307\u5f15\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u5176\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u8fc7\u7a0b\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u8bdd\u7684\u60c5\u5883\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u4e3a\u8bba\u8bc1\u903b\u8f91\u5960\u5b9a\u57fa\u8c03\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u6216\u7406\u8bba\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u9610\u91ca\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08interpretivism\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4ee5\u53ca\u89c2\u70b9\u800c\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u884c\u4e3a\u5f80\u5f80\u4e5f\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e2a\u4eba\u6240\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u73af\u5883\u3001\u6587\u5316\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ef7\u503c\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u53cd\u5bf9\u5c06\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u4e2d\u7acb\u5f0f\u89c2\u6d4b\uff08neutral observations\uff09\u3001\u666e\u904d\u6cd5\u5219\uff08universal laws\uff09\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\uff08Lin\uff0c 1998\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u6700\u540e\u662f\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u5373\u5d4c\u5165\u7406\u8bba\u89c6\u89d2\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e4b\u4e2d\u7684\u6709\u5173\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u6240\u5904\u4e16\u754c\u672c\u8d28\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u5404\u79cd\u8303\u5f0f\u4e2d\u6709\u5173\u771f\u5b9e\u4e0e\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u57fa\u7840\uff08Lincoln et al.\uff0c 2018\uff09\uff1b\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u4e3a\u5f62\u8c61\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5404\u4e2a\u5b66\u79d1\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u662f\u4f53\u73b0\u5b83\u4eec\u672c\u8d28\u7684\u201c\u76ae\u80a4\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u7edd\u975e\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u5957\u5728\u4f53\u5916\u7684\u201c\u5916\u5957\u201d\uff08Furlong and Marsh\uff0c 2018\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\uff0c\u4f46\u65e0\u8bba\u5bf9\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u672c\u4eba\u8fd8\u662f\u5bf9\u5176\u7814\u7a76\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u90fd\u8d2f\u7a7f\u59cb\u7ec8\u3001\u65e0\u6240\u4e0d\u5728\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5ba2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08objectivism\uff09\u8fd9\u4e00\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\uff0c\u4fbf\u76f8\u4fe1\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e\u4e2a\u4f53\u7cbe\u795e\u800c\u5b58\u5728\u7684\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u611f\u77e5\u5c06\u81ea\u8eab\u4e0e\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u5b9e\u5173\u8054\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u83b7\u5f97\u77e5\u8bc6\u5e76\u8ba4\u8bc6\u4e16\u754c\uff08Crotty\uff0c 1998\uff1a5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u7efc\u4e0a\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5728\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e16\u754c\u4e0e\u63a2\u7d22\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u65f6\u5f80\u5f80\u53d7\u5230\u4e0d\u540c\u4e16\u754c\u89c2\u7684\u6307\u5f15\u6216\u9a71\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e16\u754c\u89c2\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u4fbf\u5728\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u73b0\u5b9e\u672c\u8d28\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u8ba4\u8bc6\uff08\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\uff09\uff0c\u770b\u5f85\u5df2\u6709\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\uff08\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u5f62\u5f0f\u5404\u5f02\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7a0b\u5e8f\uff08\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u901a\u5e38\u53d7\u5230\u591a\u79cd\u7406\u5ff5\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff08Stake\uff0c 1995\uff09\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u662f\u57fa\u7840\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08foundationalism\uff09\u6216\u5ba2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u4e4b\u76f8\u5bf9\u7684\u53cd\u57fa\u7840\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08anti-foundationalism\uff09\u6216\u4e3b\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002\u6309\u7167\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u5f17\u9686\uff08Paul Furlong\uff09\u548c\u6234\u7ef4\u00b7\u9a6c\u4ec0\uff08David Marsh\uff09\u7684\u603b\u7ed3\uff0c\u57fa\u7840\u4e3b\u4e49\u786e\u4fe1\u771f\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u800c\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5e76\u76f8\u4fe1\u901a\u8fc7\u7ecf\u9a8c\u89c2\u5bdf\u80fd\u591f\u8ba4\u8bc6\u771f\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e4b\u5339\u914d\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u5219\u662f\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08positivism\uff09\u4e0e\u540e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08post-positivism\uff09\uff1b\u53cd\u57fa\u7840\u4e3b\u4e49\u5219\u4e3b\u5f20\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u7531\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u5efa\u6784\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u9610\u91ca\u6765\u7406\u89e3\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0e\u53cd\u57fa\u7840\u4e3b\u4e49\u76f8\u5339\u914d\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u5219\u662f\u9610\u91ca\u4e3b\u4e49\u6216\u5efa\u6784\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08Furlong and Marsh\uff0c 2018\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u672c\u6587\u6240\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u8981\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002\u2462\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u9075\u5faa\u57fa\u7840\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u5ba2\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\uff0c\u575a\u6301\u53ef\u77e5\u8bba\uff0c\u5373\u73b0\u5b9e\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u4e14\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u4e86\u89e3\u7684\uff0c\u4e8b\u7269\u672c\u8eab\u5177\u6709\u5185\u5728\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\uff08\u4e95\u6da6\u7530\u3001\u5b59\u7487\uff0c2020\uff09\u3002\u800c\u4ee5\u5361\u5c14\u00b7\u6ce2\u666e\u5c14\uff08Karl Popper\uff09\u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u540e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u5219\u5bf9\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u8fb9\u754c\u4fdd\u6301\u201c\u60b2\u89c2\u201d\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\uff0c\u5373\u4eba\u4eec\u5f53\u4e0b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6240\u8c13\u771f\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u53ef\u80fd\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u903c\u8fd1\u5ba2\u89c2\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u800c\u7814\u7a76\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u771f\u5b9e\u201c\u8868\u8c61\u201d\u8fdb\u884c\u201c\u8bc1\u4f2a\u201d\uff08falsification\uff09\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff08Popper\uff0c 1970\uff0c 2002\uff09\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u540e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e5f\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u8bbe\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3001\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5f88\u96be\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5ba2\u89c2\u6027\u2014\u2014\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u540e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u4ecd\u7136\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u8fd8\u662f\u5e94\u8be5\u575a\u6301\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5ba2\u89c2\u771f\u5b9e\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e14\u5e94\u5f53\u662f\u63a2\u6c42\u7684\uff08Lincoln et al.\uff0c 2018\uff09\u3002\u603b\u4f53\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7edd\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u548c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u8d28\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u90fd\u79c9\u6301\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e16\u754c\u89c2\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u76f8\u5bf9\u7684\u662f\u9610\u91ca\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002\u5176\u5f80\u5f80\u5f3a\u8c03\uff1a\u7531\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u548c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u4e3b\u89c2\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u7ec4\u6210\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e16\u754c\u89c2\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u8981\u7d20\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5728\u5448\u73b0\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u65f6\uff0c\u65e2\u53d7\u5230\u4e0e\u4ed6\u8005\u95f4\u793e\u4f1a\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4e5f\u53d7\u5230\u81ea\u8eab\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u9650\u5236\uff08Schwandt\uff0c 1994\uff09\u3002\u53d7\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e16\u754c\u89c2\u7684\u6307\u5f15\u4e0e\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u201c\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u201d\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4ece\u4e2a\u4f53\u89c6\u89d2\u5230\u66f4\u4e3a\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u63a8\u5e7f\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6700\u7ec8\u8fbe\u81f4\u66f4\u5177\u666e\u904d\u6027\u7684\u7406\u89e3\uff08Creswell and Clark\uff0c 2011\uff1a40\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e16\u754c\u89c2\u901a\u5e38\u4ec5\u4e0e\u8d28\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u201c\u6302\u94a9\u201d\u3002\u2463<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u603b\u4f53\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u4e24\u79cd\u6700\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\uff0c\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u6216\u540e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u76f8\u5339\u914d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u65e2\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u91cf\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u8d28\u6027\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u800c\u9610\u91ca\u4e3b\u4e49\u7814\u7a76\u5219\u51e0\u4e4e\u53ea\u4f7f\u7528\u8d28\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08\u5f20\u6c49\uff0c2016\uff09\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e5f\u56e0\u79c9\u6301\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u903b\u8f91\u4e0e\u8def\u5f84\u4e0a\u65e0\u6cd5\u201c\u901a\u7ea6\u201d\u3002\u7ed3\u5408\u5bf9\u6982\u7136\u8bba\u56e0\u679c\u89c2\u548c\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u56e0\u679c\u89c2\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u6bd4\u5947\uff08Derek Beach\uff09\u548c\u4f69\u5fb7\u68ee\uff08Rasmus Brun Pedersen\uff09\u6240\u603b\u7ed3\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\u5b66\uff08\u89c1\u88681\uff09\u3002\u2464\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u201c\u89c4\u5f8b\u6027-\u6982\u7136\u8bba\u201d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u5047\u5b9a\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u6700\u4e3a\u5e7f\u6cdb\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u56e0\u679c\u8bba\u4e0b\uff0c\u539f\u56e0X\u88ab\u7406\u8bba\u5316\u4e3a\u589e\u52a0\u7ed3\u679cY\u5728\u603b\u4f53\u4e2d\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8be5\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u4e09\u6761\u6807\u51c6\uff08\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3001\u56e0\u679c\u65f6\u5e8f\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u975e\u865a\u5047\u6027\u5173\u8054\u6216\u89c4\u5f8b\u6027\u5173\u8054\uff09\u5747\u5f97\u5230\u6ee1\u8db3\uff0c\u90a3\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a8\u65adX\u662fY\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\uff08Beach and Pedersen\uff0c 2013\uff1a27-28\uff09\u3002\u5b9a\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u4fbf\u662f\u9075\u5faa\u8fd9\u4e00\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u3002\u5982\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e3b\u8981\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u5bf9\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u7edf\u8ba1\u63a8\u8bba\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bf9\u7406\u8bba\u5047\u8bbe\u8fdb\u884c\u68c0\u9a8c\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff08\u5e9e\u73e3\uff0c2014\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u800c\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u5219\u57fa\u672c\u9075\u5faa\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u6cd5\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u8bc6\u522b\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u4ece\u800c\u68c0\u9a8c\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u5728\u4e8e\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u5206\u6790\uff08Beach and Pedersen\uff0c 2013\uff1b\u9648\u8d85\u3001\u6e38\u5b87\uff0c2022\uff09\u3002\u4e0e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u7c7b\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u5206\u6790\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u4e2a\u6848\u7814\u7a76\u2014\u2014\u5219\u79c9\u627f\u201c\u89c4\u5f8b\u6027-\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u201d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u5047\u5b9a\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u901a\u8fc7\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0e\u8bc1\u636e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5339\u914d\u60c5\u51b5\u6765\u5224\u65ad\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u8054\u3002\u6839\u636e\u5e03\u62c9\u7279\u548c\u54c8\u5f17\u5170\uff08Blatter and Haverland\uff0c 2014\uff1a24\uff09\u7684\u603b\u7ed3\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7814\u7a76\u8def\u5f84\u5f80\u5f80\u5c06\u7406\u8bba\u89c6\u89d2\u770b\u4f5c\u6574\u5408\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u89c2\uff0c\u800c\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u5219\u7528\u4e8e\u9610\u660e\u6216\u6bd4\u8f83\u591a\u79cd\u7ade\u4e89\u6216\u4e92\u8865\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u4f18\u52bf\uff1b\u5728\u5177\u4f53\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u5206\u6790\u901a\u8fc7\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0d\u540c\u7406\u8bba\u5bf9\u4e2a\u6848\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5224\u65ad\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7406\u8bba\u5bf9\u8be5\u4e2a\u6848\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u8de8\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u540c\u6837\u9075\u5faa\u201c\u89c4\u5f8b\u6027-\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u201d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u5047\u5b9a\u4e0b\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u5173\u6ce8\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u5c0f\u89c4\u6a21\u6216\u4e2d\u7b49\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u903b\u8f91\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u63a2\u7d22\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5145\u5206\uff0f\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ece\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8de8\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5173\u952e\u76ee\u6807\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u4e8e\u63a2\u7d22\u590d\u6742\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u7efc\u4e0a\uff0c\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6db5\u76d6\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u5206\u6790\u3001\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u5ba2\u89c2\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u89c2\u5bdf\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u5c5e\u4e8e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e0b\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u4f20\u7edf\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5b83\u4eec\u5206\u4eab\u540c\u4e00\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5b83\u4eec\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0d\u5c3d\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u76ee\u6807\u4e0e\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0a\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\"><strong>\u56db\u3001\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5206\u6790\u8def\u5f84<\/strong><\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5f80\u5f80\u5305\u542b\u63a2\u5bfb\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0e\u5398\u6e05\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u4e24\u4e2a\u7d27\u5bc6\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u6574\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5728\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u57fa\u7840\u4e0b\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u6848\u4f8b\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5927\u81f4\u53ef\u4ee5\u533a\u5206\u51fa\u4e09\u79cd\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u8def\u5f84\uff08\u89c1\u88682\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u9996\u5148\u662f\u4e2a\u6848\u7814\u7a76\u6216\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u5206\u6790\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u4ee5\u53ca\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5bf9\u8bdd\u53ef\u8c13\u6d69\u5982\u70df\u6d77\uff0c\u4f46\u4e3b\u8981\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u5b66\u8005\u5bf9\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0e\u6848\u4f8b\u672c\u8eab\u4e00\u6837\u591a\u5143\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5982\u4f55\u8fdb\u884c\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u6807\u51c6\uff08Ragin and Becker\uff0c 1992\uff09\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ece\u89c4\u5f8b\u6027\u548c\u673a\u5236\u6027\u6765\u7406\u89e3\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u4ecd\u7136\u5341\u5206\u6709\u7528\u3002\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u5206\u6790\u8def\u5f84\u5f80\u5f80\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u4fa7\u91cd\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u4e2a\u6848\u7814\u7a76\u901a\u8fc7\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0e\u8bc1\u636e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5339\u914d\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e\u53d1\u73b0\u67d0\u79cd\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u8054\uff1b\u800c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u5219\u901a\u8fc7\u5224\u65ad\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u5404\u4e2a\u90e8\u4ef6\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u6765\u5448\u73b0\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\uff08\u5982\u88681\u6240\u793a\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u4e2a\u6848\u5206\u6790\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0d\u540c\u7406\u8bba\u5bf9\u4e2a\u6848\u7ed3\u679c\u9884\u6d4b\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u5224\u65ad\u4e0d\u540c\u7406\u8bba\u5bf9\u8be5\u4e2a\u6848\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\u3002\u5728\u5177\u4f53\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0a\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e2a\u6848\u6765\u9009\u62e9\u51e0\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5256\u9762\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8003\u5bdf\u5404\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u5256\u9762\u4e0a\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0d\u540c\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\uff08George and Bennett\uff0c 2005\uff09\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u53e4\u5df4\u5bfc\u5f39\u5371\u673a\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u5256\u9762\uff0c\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u4fbf\u5448\u73b0\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u89c6\u89d2\u548c\u4fa7\u91cd\u70b9\uff08Allison and Zelikow\uff0c 1999\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u5219\u4e3b\u8981\u5f3a\u8c03\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u56e0\u679c\u94fe\u3001\u5076\u7136\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u53cc\u5411\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u5c06\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u7eb3\u5165\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff08Collier\uff0c 2011\uff1b Crasnow\uff0c 2017\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7684\u4e2a\u6848\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u4ee5\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u201d\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u5173\u6ce8\u201c\u7531\u679c\u6eaf\u56e0\u201d\u4ee5\u53ca\u52a8\u6001\u5730\u89e3\u91ca\u5177\u4f53\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5c42\u9762\u4ecd\u9762\u4e34\u8bf8\u591a\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5982\u4f55\u9009\u53d6\u4e2a\u6848\u3001\u63cf\u6479\u673a\u5236\u3001\u5b9a\u4e49\u5904\u5883\u3001\u68c0\u9a8c\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5c31\u4e8b\u8bba\u4e8b\u5730\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2a\u6848\u4e2d\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u5047\u8bf4\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u6709\u6548\u6027\u4e4b\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u6743\u8861\uff08\u6c6a\u536b\u534e\uff0c2022\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5207\u5b9e\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u662f\u5c06\u57fa\u4e8e\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u4e0e\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u5206\u6790\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff08\u9648\u8d85\u3001\u6e38\u5b87\uff0c2022\uff09\u3002\u9664\u6b64\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u4e0e\u53e6\u5916\u4e24\u79cd\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\uff08\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\uff09\u6574\u5408\u4e3a\u591a\u5143\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u8ba9\u4e2a\u6848\u7814\u7a76\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u89e3\u91ca\u53ef\u63a8\u5e7f\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u4e2a\u6848\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u8de8\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\u524d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6784\u5efa\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\u6216\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u63a2\u7d22\u6027\u7814\u7a76\uff1b\u6216\u8005\u5728\u8de8\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\u540e\uff0c\u5c06\u5176\u4f5c\u4e3a\u89e3\u91ca\u6240\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u673a\u5236\u5206\u6790\uff08Beach and Rohlfing\uff0c 2018\uff09\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5728\u6784\u5efa\u7406\u8bba\u6846\u67b6\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u63a2\u7d22\u6027\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u786e\u8ba4\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u7279\u5b9a\u539f\u56e0\u6761\u4ef6\u4e4b\u95f4\u5230\u5e95\u5b58\u5728\u4f55\u79cd\u673a\u5236\uff1b\u901a\u8fc7\u8de8\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u73b0\u67d0\u79cd\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u6216\u591a\u79cd\u56e0\u679c\u8def\u5f84\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u6765\u5206\u6790\u4f55\u79cd\u673a\u5236\u80fd\u591f\u89e3\u91ca\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u53d1\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u9a8c\u8bc1\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u662f\u5426\u5982\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u671f\u90a3\u6837\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\u2014\u2014\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5176\u539f\u56e0\u53c8\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u968f\u7740\u6848\u4f8b\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u9012\u589e\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7c7b\u5219\u662f\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7c7b\u7814\u7a76\u901a\u5e38\u4ee5\u5bc6\u5c14\uff08Mill\uff0c 1970\uff09\u5728\u300a\u903b\u8f91\u5b66\u4f53\u7cfb\u300b\u4e2d\u5bf9\u6c42\u540c\u6cd5\u4e0e\u6c42\u5f02\u6cd5\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u8bba\u8ff0\u4e3a\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5e76\u53d1\u5c55\u4e3a\u5728\u903b\u8f91\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5f15\u5bfc\u4e0b\uff0c\u9009\u53d6\u5408\u9002\u6848\u4f8b\u8fdb\u884c\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u8be5\u8def\u5f84\u5f3a\u8c03\u901a\u8fc7\u8de8\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u53d7\u63a7\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u4ee5\u8bc4\u4f30\u5f15\u53d1\u7ed3\u679c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6216\u5145\u5206\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u65e8\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u56e0\u679c\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u5728\u6bd4\u8f83\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u3001\u6bd4\u8f83\u5386\u53f2\u5206\u6790\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e0e\u8d22\u653f\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u5747\u6709\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8fd0\u7528\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u65af\u8003\u5207\u6ce2\uff08Skocpol\uff0c 1979\uff09\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u9769\u547d\u8d77\u6e90\u4e0e\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u8de8\u56fd\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4f55\u6587\u51ef\uff08He\uff0c 2013\uff09\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u5236\u5ea6\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u7814\u7a76\u82f1\u56fd\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e09\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d22\u653f\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u53d8\u8fc1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5305\u521a\u5347\uff082014\uff09\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u4f53\u4e3a\u4f55\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5f52\u7eb3\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u5206\u6790\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5728\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u8def\u5f84\u4e2d\uff0c\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u6027\u4e0e\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u6027\u7b49\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u88ab\u4eba\u8bdf\u75c5\uff08Beck\uff0c2017\uff09\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5176\u5bf9\u4e8e\u63a7\u5236\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0e\u903b\u8f91\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u63a8\u5e7f\u4e0e\u91cd\u89c6\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u4f7f\u5176\u6210\u4e3a\u8de8\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u7b2c\u4e09\u7c7b\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u5219\u662f\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u3002\u5982\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7814\u7a76\u8def\u5f84\u4e3b\u8981\u57fa\u4e8e\u6574\u4f53\u8bba\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u5c06\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\u90fd\u89c6\u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u201c\u7ec4\u5408\u5f62\u6001\u201d\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u6848\u4f8b\u95f4\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u627e\u51fa\u6761\u4ef6\u7ec4\u6001\u4e0e\u7ed3\u679c\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff08Rihoux and Ragin\uff0c 2009\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u90e8\u5206\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5bf9\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u548c\u7406\u89e3\u4e0d\u591f\u5168\u9762\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u56fd\u5185\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u4ee5\u53ca\u884c\u653f\u7ba1\u7406\u7b49\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u660e\u663e\u7684\u8bef\u7528\u3002\u867d\u7136\u62c9\u91d1\u662f\u5728\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5bf9\u5b9a\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u4e0e\u8d28\u6027\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u4e24\u79cd\u8def\u5f84\u8fdb\u884c\u53d6\u957f\u8865\u77ed\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5\u6b64\u63d0\u51fa\u4ee5\u5e03\u5c14\u4ee3\u6570\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5c06\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5b9a\u91cf\u548c\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u4e2d\u95f4\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6ee5\u7528\u6216\u8bef\u7528\u3002\u5bf9\u6b64\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u5219\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u8981\u907f\u514d\u4e0a\u8ff0\u9519\u8bef\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bef\u7528\uff0c\u5219\u8981\u91cd\u65b0\u56de\u5f52\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5373\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff08\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u8fd8\u662f\u6982\u7387\u8bba\uff09\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\uff08\u89c4\u5f8b\u6027\u8fd8\u662f\u673a\u5236\u6027\uff09\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u5728\u88683\u4e2d\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5bf9\u6bd4\u4e0e\u603b\u7ed3\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u88683\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u601d\u8def\u4e0e\u64cd\u4f5c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u4e4b\u4e2d\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff08methodological institutionalization\uff09\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u5b9e\u8df5\u6240\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u6700\u5177\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u548c\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u6027\u3002\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u5728\u4e8e\u6784\u5efa\u4ee5\u771f\u503c\u8868\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u771f\u503c\u8868\u7684\u884c\u4ee3\u8868\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\uff0c\u800c\u6848\u4f8b\u88ab\u5206\u914d\u5230\u5b83\u4eec\u6240\u5c5e\u7684\u884c\uff0c\u6bcf\u884c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u503c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5173\u8054\u3002\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u9075\u5faa\u201c\u89c4\u5f8b\u6027-\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u201d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\uff0c\u4ee5\u96c6\u5408\u8bba\u548c\u5e03\u5c14\u4ee3\u6570\u4e3a\u5206\u6790\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u5206\u6790\u56e0\u679c\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u5373\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ed3\u679cY\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u6761\u4ef6\u7ec4\u5408\u3002\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u65b9\u6cd5\u5219\u4e3b\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u8de8\u4e2a\u6848\u7684\u53d7\u63a7\u6bd4\u8f83\u4ee5\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ed3\u679cY\u4e3a\u4f55\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u548c\uff08\u6216\uff09\u5145\u5206\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u4e0e\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u4e3b\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u201c\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u201d\uff08big questions\uff09\uff0c\u5c1d\u8bd5\u89e3\u6790\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u2465<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u90fd\u6709\u4f18\u52a3\u4e4b\u5904\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5728\u53d1\u6325\u67d0\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u957f\u5904\u4e4b\u65f6\uff0c\u66f4\u5e94\u8be5\u6e05\u9192\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6548\u7528\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u5404\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6709\u673a\u7ec4\u5408\u6765\u62d3\u5c55\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u6548\u5ea6\u3002\u5f53\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5b8c\u6210\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u6216\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u5173\u6ce8\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5927\u81f4\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u4e24\u79cd\u5206\u6790\u8def\u5f84\u6765\u63a2\u7d22\u673a\u5236\uff1a\u5176\u4e00\u662f\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u56e0\u679c\u73b0\u8c61\u8fdb\u884c\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u6b21\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u5373\u5bfb\u627e\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u57fa\u7840\uff08\u5f20\u957f\u4e1c\uff0c2018\uff09\uff1b\u5176\u4e8c\u4fbf\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u8fdb\u884c\u673a\u5236\u5206\u6790\uff08Bennett\uff0c 2010\uff09\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u54ea\u4e00\u79cd\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7684\u4e2a\u6848\u5185\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u5747\u9002\u7528\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u4fbf\u662f\u5206\u6790\u5982\u4f55\u5c06\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0e\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u5173\u8054\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u8de8\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5047\u8bbe\u8fdb\u884c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u5982\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u5728\u201c\u673a\u5236\u8bba-\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u201d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8bae\u9898\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5373\u4eceX\u5230\u4ea7\u751fY\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\uff08causal force\uff09\u7684\u4f20\u9012\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5\u80fd\u5426\u53d1\u73b0\u6bcf\u4e2a\u673a\u5236\u90e8\u4ef6\u6240\u9884\u671f\u5230\u7684\u53ef\u89c2\u5bdf\u8bc1\u636e\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u5224\u65ad\u4f9d\u636e\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u5728\u5206\u6790\u5c42\u6b21\u4e0a\u5f80\u5f80\u5c06\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e0e\u5fae\u89c2\u5e76\u91cd\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7684\u5b9a\u6027\u8bc1\u636e\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u6216\u5145\u5206\u6027\u8bc1\u636e\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5373\u4f7f\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u6216\u5bcc\u6709\u6210\u6548\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u5bf9\u6b64\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5e94\u8be5\u601d\u8003\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u5408\u7406\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u8fd0\u7528\u8d28\u6027\u8bc1\u636e\u4ece\u800c\u652f\u6301\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u66f4\u52a0\u5173\u6ce8\u5177\u4f53\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3001\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u5904\u5883\u4e0e\u5177\u4f53\u884c\u52a8\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u95ee\u9898\u4fdd\u6301\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u5e76\u975e\u96be\u4e8b\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9762\u5bf9\u5927\u91cf\u6848\u4f8b\u65f6\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u90fd\u4fdd\u6301\u6df1\u5165\u89c2\u5bdf\u662f\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u9762\u4e34\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u95ee\u9898\uff08\u6e38\u5b87\u3001\u9648\u8d85\uff0c2020\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u5e38\u5e38\u88ab\u4eba\u8bdf\u75c5\u7684\u662f\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u5982\u4f55\u786e\u5b9a\u3001\u6848\u4f8b\u5982\u4f55\u9009\u62e9\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u5c11\u6570\u6848\u4f8b\u800c\u5f97\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u8fd8\u9762\u4e34\u5bf9\u5c11\u6570\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5f52\u7eb3\u6216\u63a8\u5e7f\u95ee\u9898\uff08Elwert and Winship\uff0c 2014\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u800c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5176\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u6848\u4f8b\u8fdb\u884c\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u7ec4\u6001\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6761\u4ef6\u6216\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5219\u57fa\u672c\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7684\u4e3b\u89c2\u5224\u65ad\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5728\u5efa\u6784\u6761\u4ef6\u7ec4\u5408\u56e0\u679c\u540e\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u5206\u6790\u8fdb\u884c\u673a\u5236\u8bf4\u660e\u5219\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5c31\u8981\u6c42\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5bf9\u5168\u90e8\u6848\u4f8b\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u80cc\u666f\u4fdd\u6301\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u4e0a\u8ff0\u95ee\u9898\u5747\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u7406\u8bba\u601d\u8003\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7b49\u201c\u7814\u7a76\u827a\u672f\u201d\u4e0e\u5404\u79cd\u5206\u6790\u6280\u5de7\u7b49\u201c\u7814\u7a76\u6280\u672f\u201d\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\u3002\u8981\u6700\u5927\u5316\u53d1\u6325\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u9700\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5168\u9762\u4e14\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u628a\u63e1\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u4e0e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u8981\u7d20\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u4e5f\u8981\u6c42\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u5408\u9002\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u6280\u827a\u3001\u6574\u5408\u6027\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u6765\u89c4\u907f\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u6f5c\u5728\u95ee\u9898\u4e0e\u5c40\u9650\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\"><strong>\u4e94\u3001\u603b\u7ed3\u4e0e\u8ba8\u8bba<\/strong><\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u5206\u6790\u4e0e\u8de8\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5e38\u89c1\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e3a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u5b66\u8005\u4e0e\u5b66\u79d1\u6240\u8fd0\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5bf9\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3001\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u4ec0\u4e48\u7b49\u91cd\u8981\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b66\u754c\u5c1a\u7f3a\u5c11\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u548c\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u5176\u540e\u679c\u4fbf\u662f\u201c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6c34\u51c6\u53c2\u5dee\u4e0d\u9f50\uff0c\u6210\u679c\u5f88\u96be\u76f8\u4e92\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e76\u663e\u793a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u7d2f\u8fdb\u4ef7\u503c\u201d\uff08\u5f20\u9759\uff0c2018\uff1a126\uff09\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5f53\u4e0b\u6709\u7740\u5411\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7814\u7a76\u8f6c\u5411\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u4f46\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5728\u90e8\u5206\u5b66\u79d1\u7684\u53d1\u8868\u8d8b\u52bf\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u672c\u79d1\u751f\u4e0e\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u6559\u5b66\u4e0a\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5730\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5c42\u9762\u201c\u91cd\u5b9a\u91cf\u8f7b\u8d28\u6027\u201d\u3001\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u8f83\u4e0d\u89c4\u8303\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5219\u5c1d\u8bd5\u901a\u8fc7\u4ecb\u7ecd\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u4e0e\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u7406\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u6df1\u5165\u7406\u89e3\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u4e25\u8c28\u5730\u5f00\u5c55\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u672c\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u5728\u673a\u5236\u9a8c\u8bc1\u548c\u7406\u8bba\u53d1\u5c55\u65b9\u9762\u5747\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f18\u52bf\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u5177\u5907\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u6709\u6548\u6027\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u6709\u6548\u5730\u4ea7\u751f\u65b0\u7684\u5047\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u9a8c\u8bc1\u9884\u8bbe\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5904\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u51fa\u8272\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f7f\u5176\u6210\u4e3a\u6709\u522b\u4e8e\u91cf\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u72ec\u7279\u5206\u6790\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u800c\u8981\u79d1\u5b66\u5730\u5c55\u5f00\u4e00\u9879\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u9996\u5148\u8981\u7406\u89e3\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u4f20\u7edf\u4e0b\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u8981\u9075\u5faa\u201c\u89c4\u5f8b\u6027-\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u201d\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u5b9a\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\uff09\u6216\u201c\u673a\u5236\u6027-\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u201d\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u6cd5\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5176\u5173\u952e\u4ef7\u503c\u5728\u4e8e\u63ed\u793a\u4e8b\u7269\u4e4b\u95f4\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u56e0\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u66f4\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u79cd\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u5747\u5b58\u5728\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u5206\u6790\u8fb9\u754c\u6216\u5c40\u9650\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5404\u5b66\u79d1\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u878d\u5408\u548c\u4ee5\u95ee\u9898\u4e3a\u5bfc\u5411\u7684\u8de8\u5b66\u79d1\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5174\u8d77\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u5df2\u7ecf\u9010\u6e10\u4ece\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u9010\u6e10\u8fc8\u5411\u8de8\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\u4e0e\u6848\u4f8b\u5185\u63a8\u65ad\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\u7684\u591a\u5143\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\uff08Goertz\uff0c 2017\uff09\u3002\u5728\u591a\u5143\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5728\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7814\u7a76\u4e4b\u521d\u4fbf\u8981\u660e\u786e\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5ba2\u4f53\u3001\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u76ee\u6807\u548c\u53ef\u4f9b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u603b\u4f53\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0d\u540c\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u5e76\u9488\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u8fd0\u7528\u5408\u9002\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u9009\u53d6\u6070\u5f53\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5145\u5206\u6316\u6398\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u5728\u591a\u5143\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e2d\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u6f5c\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u4e00\u9879\u5bcc\u6709\u7406\u8bba\u751f\u547d\u529b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4eec\u601d\u7ef4\u827a\u672f\u4e0e\u7814\u7a76\u6280\u672f\u7684\u6709\u673a\u878d\u5408\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e00\u6709\u673a\u878d\u5408\u5f80\u5f80\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5bf9\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u8c61\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e0e\u5b9e\u5730\u8c03\u7814\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u5c42\u9762\u63d0\u70bc\u51fa\u503c\u5f97\u53cd\u601d\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u878d\u5165\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u60c5\u5883\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7279\u6709\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u8bbe\u7f6e\u4e0e\u5404\u5177\u7279\u8272\u7684\u533a\u57df\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u4e3a\u5404\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u5206\u6790\u7d20\u6750\u548c\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u901a\u8fc7\u79d1\u5b66\u4e14\u4e25\u8c28\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u5bfc\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u6765\u201c\u8bb2\u597d\u4e2d\u56fd\u6545\u4e8b\u201d\uff0c\u8d21\u732e\u65b0\u7406\u8bba\u65b0\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u5f53\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7406\u5e94\u627f\u62c5\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u4f7f\u547d\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u2003\u2003*\u672c\u6587\u7cfb\u56fd\u5bb6\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u91d1\u4e00\u822c\u9879\u76ee\u201c\u2018\u65b0\u578b\u653f\u5546\u5173\u7cfb\u2019\u89c6\u57df\u4e0b\u4f18\u5316\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0e\u884c\u4e1a\u534f\u4f1a\u5546\u4f1a\u4e4b\u95f4\u5173\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u201d\uff08\u9879\u76ee\u7f16\u53f7\uff1a21BZZ053\uff09\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\n<p align=\"left\">\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\uff1a<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u9648\u8d85\u3001\u674e\u54cd\uff0c2019\uff0c\u300a\u903b\u8f91\u56e0\u679c\u4e0e\u91cf\u5316\u76f8\u5173\uff1a\u5c11\u6848\u4f8b\u6bd4\u8f83\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u4e24\u79cd\u8def\u5f84\u300b\uff0c\u8f7d\u300a\u516c\u5171\u7ba1\u7406\u8bc4\u8bba\u300b\u7b2c1\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u9648\u8d85\u3001\u6e38\u5b87\uff0c2022\uff0c\u300a\u8fc8\u5411\u7406\u8bba\u5bfc\u5411\u7684\u4e2a\u6848\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u4e0e\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6df7\u5408\u8bbe\u8ba1\u300b\uff0c\u8f7d\u300a\u516c\u5171\u7ba1\u7406\u8bc4\u8bba\u300b\u7b2c4\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u4e95\u6da6\u7530\u3001\u5b59\u7487\uff0c2020\uff0c\u300a\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49vs.\u8be0\u91ca\u4e3b\u4e49\uff1a\u4e24\u79cd\u7ecf\u5178\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u5f0f\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0e\u542f\u793a\u300b\uff0c\u8f7d\u300a\u7ba1\u7406\u4e16\u754c\u300b\u7b2c3\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u5305\u521a\u5347\uff0c2014\uff0c\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u300b\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\uff1a\u5546\u52a1\u5370\u4e66\u9986\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u5e9e\u73e3\uff0c2014\uff0c\u300a\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u5b9a\u4e49\u3001\u89c4\u5219\u4e0e\u64cd\u4f5c\u300b\uff0c\u8f7d\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u300b\u7b2c1\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u6c6a\u536b\u534e\uff0c2022\uff0c\u300a\u62c6\u89e3\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u300b\uff0c\u8f7d\u300a\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b66\u300b\u7b2c2\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u6e38\u5b87\u3001\u9648\u8d85\uff0c2020\uff0c\u300a\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u201c\u6280\u827a\u201d\uff1a\u591a\u5143\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u9009\u62e9\u300b\uff0c\u8f7d\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u793e\u4f1a\u4f53\u5236\u6bd4\u8f83\u300b\u7b2c2\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u5f20\u6c49\uff0c2016\uff0c\u300a\u8d28\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u91cf\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u622a\u7136\u5bf9\u7acb\u7684\u5417?\u2014\u2014\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7684\u672c\u4f53\u8bba\u548c\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\u8fa8\u6790\u300b\uff0c\u8f7d\u300a\u56fd\u5916\u7406\u8bba\u52a8\u6001\u300b\u7b2c5\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u5f20\u957f\u4e1c\uff0c2018\uff0c\u300a\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u673a\u5236\uff1a\u5fae\u89c2\u57fa\u7840\u548c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ffd\u8e2a\u300b\uff0c\u8f7d\u300a\u516c\u5171\u7ba1\u7406\u8bc4\u8bba\u300b\u7b2c1\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u5f20\u9759\uff0c2018\uff0c\u300a\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff1a\u4ece\u6545\u4e8b\u5230\u77e5\u8bc6\u300b\uff0c\u8f7d\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u300b\u7b2c8\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u6731\u5929\u98da\uff0c2015\uff0c\u300a\u3008\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3009\u4e0e\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u300b\uff0c\u8f7d\u300a\u516c\u5171\u884c\u653f\u8bc4\u8bba\u300b\u7b2c4\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">Allison, Graham and Philip Zelikow, 1999, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, New York: Addison-Wesley Longman.<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">Beach, Derek and Ingo Rohlfing, 2018, \u201cIntegrating Cross-Case Analyses and Process Tracing in Set-Theoretic Research: Strategies and Parameters of Debate,\u201d Sociological Methods &amp; Research, Vol. 47, Iss. 1, pp. 3-36.<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">Beach, Derek and Rasmus Brun Pedersen, 2013, Process Tracing Methods: Foundation and Guidelines, Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press.<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">Beck, Colin J., 2017, \u201cThe Comparative Method in Practice?: Case Selection and the Social Science of Revolution,\u201d Social Science History, Vol. 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Ragin, 2009, Configurational Comparative Methods: Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and Related Techniques, Thousand Oaks: Sage.<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">Rohlfing, I. and Schneider, C. Q., 2018, \u201cA Unifying Framework for Causal Analysis in Set-Theoretic Multimethod Research,\u201d Sociological Methods and Research, Vol. 47, No. 1, pp. 37-63.<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">Schwandt, T. A., 1994, \u201cConstructivist, Interpretivist Approaches to Human Inquiry,\u201d in Norman K. Denzin and Yvonna S. Lincoln (eds.), Handbook of Qualitative Research, Thousand Oaks: Sage.<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">Seawright, Jason W., 2016, Multi-Method Social Science: Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Tools, New York: Cambridge University Press.<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">Skocpol, Theda, 1979, States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China, New York: Cambridge University Press.<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">Stake, R. E., 1995, The Art of Case Study Research, Thousand Oaks: Sage.<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\n<p align=\"left\">\u3010\u6ce8\u91ca\u3011<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u2460\u9700\u8981\u8bf4\u660e\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u533a\u5206\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u201c\u8d28\u6027\u201d\u4e0e\u201c\u91cf\u5316\u201d\u7684\u533a\u5206\u4e0d\u5c3d\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8d28\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u5305\u62ec\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u4eba\u6587\u4e24\u5927\u4f20\u7edf\u3002\u524d\u8005\u53d7\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ee5\u201c\u89e3\u91ca\u201d\uff08explanation\uff09\u4e3a\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u5bfb\u6c42\u66f4\u5177\u4e00\u822c\u5316\u7684\u201c\u89c4\u5f8b\u201d\uff1b\u540e\u8005\u5219\u53d7\u540e\u73b0\u4ee3\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ee5\u201c\u9610\u91ca\u201d\uff08interpretation\uff09\u4e3a\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u5bfb\u6c42\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u80cc\u666f\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u610f\u4e49\u201d\uff08\u6731\u5929\u98da\uff0c2015\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u6b63\u662f\u672c\u6587\u4e0d\u4f7f\u7528\u201c\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u201c\u91cf\u5316\u201d\u7684\u5bf9\u5e94\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u2461\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f53\u6570\u52a0\u91cc\u00b7\u91d1\u3001\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u57fa\u6b27\u6c49\u548c\u6089\u5c3c\u00b7\u7ef4\u5df4\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u300a\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u300b\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u5927\uff08King et al.\uff0c 1994\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u2462\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e76\u672a\u4e25\u683c\u533a\u5206\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e0e\u540e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u7b3c\u7edf\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5185\u6db5\uff0c\u5373\u5f3a\u8c03\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4e0e\u7814\u7a76\u5ba2\u4f53\u76f8\u4e92\u5206\u79bb\uff0c\u73b0\u5b9e\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u5b58\u5728\u7684\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5e94\u8be5\u575a\u6301\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u2463\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u624e\u6839\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08grounded theory\uff09\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u4fbf\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u9610\u91ca\u4e3b\u4e49\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5728\u4e8e\u201c\u7406\u89e3\u201d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u624e\u6839\u5f0f\u5f52\u7eb3\uff08grounded induction\uff09\u7684\u7f16\u7801\u6216\u7406\u8bba\u5efa\u6784\u7684\u5206\u6790\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff08\u53c2\u89c1Charmaz, 2014\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">\u2464\u6982\u7136\u8bba\u5c06\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u7b80\u5316\u4e3a\u6570\u91cf\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5177\u4f53\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf\uff08\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5e72\u9884\uff09Ti\u5bf9\u4e8e\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf\uff08\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\uff09Yi\u7684\u6548\u5e94\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bba\u5f80\u5f80\u5728\u603b\u4f53\u5c42\u6b21\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4e0e\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5\u5145\u5206\u6027\u6216\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u9a6c\u6d2a\u5c3c\uff08Mahoney\uff0c 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